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Professors find ways to predict student success

July 31, 2006

Grade-point averages and SAT scores can only do so much to predict student success at college. That's why two MSU professors researched other ways to anticipate how student life beyond the books plays into college performance.

After looking at students' interests, background experiences and motivational characteristics from 10 universities during a four-year period, psychology professors Neal Schmitt, Frederick Oswald and a team of undergraduate and graduate students found predictors for student potential, including their likeliness to cheat, drop out of school and attend classes regularly.

The College Board approached Schmitt and Oswald about conducting the study, which it plans to use to enhance college admissions.

"I think it's a step forward in terms of learning about college performance more broadly and how to admit students that will create a more well-rounded student body," Oswald said.

"If you expand your selection beyond that of ability, you can look at these elements and expand the array of (students at) the college."

Oswald and Schmitt started by examining college mission statements to find which student traits universities desire. They narrowed them down to 12 categories, including artistic and cultural appreciation, social responsibility and citizenship, and career orientation.

These characteristics were examined by a series of multiple-choice questions, which focused on students' reactions to hypothetical college situations and past experiences.

"It is daunting in a sense that no test is perfect in predicting students' success," Oswald said. "We did the best as we could to make the test as reliable and predictable of student outcomes as possible."

Background data, Oswald said, is probably the most useful in terms of predicting how students will behave in college.

The data indicates students' experiences, including involvement with organizations and the amount of time spent seeking career information.

He said although colleges will continue to ask for written material such as essays and lists of job experiences, it would be beneficial to have a more concrete measure of student ability.

"You lose some of that individual richness, but what you gain is the consistency, and it's interpreted in a similar way on the admissions side of things," Oswald said.

Graduate student Brian Kim contributed to the project, which he said gave him the opportunity to work with respected researchers and benefits his psychology studies.

"We're just trying to find a way to measure people," Kim said. "That's what people are already doing — already looking for a type of student. We're just trying to help them do it in a much more fair and accurate way."

The next step in utilizing the information is extending the research to high school seniors, said Viji Sathy, an associate research scientist for the College Board.

Questions from the study will be compiled and distributed to about 15 universities across the country, and administered with college applications, Sathy said.

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