The battle is on

Both presumptive presidential candidates work to win Michigan

The 2008 presidential campaign promises to be one of the most memorable in United States history, and the Mitten State is emerging as a key battleground for both presidential candidates. Michigan has voted for a Democratic candidate in the past four presidential elections, but the margin of victory has been increasingly slim. This uncertainty, combined with the state’s large population of undecided voters, has made Michigan a crucial campaign state for presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., said Ben Kleinerman, an assistant professor in MSU’s James Madison College. “Both sides are seeing it as a state they can both win, and given the electoral map, there’s not many states that fall into that category,” Kleinerman said.

McCain

Obama

Up for grabs

Michigan has gained ample attention from Democrats who have traditionally relied on the state’s 17 electoral votes and Republicans who hope to flip the state and gain some unexpected leverage.

“The Michigan vote is going to be critical because if Senator McCain can take a state the Democrats typically rely on (that) would pull the rug out from under the Democrats,” said Ben Morlock, spokesman for the MSU College Republicans.

Obama has more than 100 campaign workers and several offices throughout the state, while McCain’s representatives have at least 14 campaign centers in Michigan, state Democratic and Republican spokespersons said.

Most current polls show a slight advantage for Obama in Michigan, but that doesn’t include about 16 percent of voters who have not committed to a candidate, said Nat Ehrlich, a survey research specialist for the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research. If those voters are taken into account, the race is impossible to predict, he said.

“We’re looking at a situation where a lot of people haven’t made up their minds,” he said.

The swing vote

Swaying votes in Michigan is more important than ever for McCain because several states that typically favor Republican candidates, such as Indiana, aren’t so clearly aligned this year, said MSU political science professor Brian Silver.

In addition, McCain’s consideration of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who won the Michigan primary Jan. 15, as a possible running mate indicates that he is strongly focused on Michigan, Kleinerman said. Romney, the son of former Michigan Gov. George Romney, brother of MSU Trustee Scott Romney.

Choosing Romney as a running mate would bolster McCain’s economic credibility and garner support from voters who favor Romney as a Michigan native, Kleinerman said.

“One should expect that if he chose Romney, he’s directly pursuing the possibility of winning Michigan,” Kleinerman said.

Key issues

Political experts, Republicans and Democrats all agree Michigan’s economy will be the biggest issue determining which candidate undecided voters choose.

“When you talk about the nationwide economic trouble the country is in, Michigan is the epitome of that,” said Georg Schuttler, spokesman for the MSU College Democrats. “When the candidates come to speak, they’re going to be talking about jobs.”

Since securing their party’s presumptive nomination, both Obama and McCain have made several appearances in Michigan to promote their plans for the struggling manufacturing sector and have promised to help the state diversify its economy.

“I don’t think the Iraq war or the war on terror or any other issue is going to be as important as the economic issues,” Ehrlich said.

In addition to their economic plans, experts say McCain and Obama have each targeted key voter groups in their campaigns.

Silver said McCain’s campaign in Michigan has targeted so-called “values voters.”

“It’s moral issues,” he said. “Whether right to life or faith based initiatives, that’s the kind of thing that still will draw support to (Republicans).”

For Obama, key voters in Michigan may be young people and other first-time voters who have been motivated by their dissatisfaction with the current administration, Schuttler said.

“There’s this whole new chunk of people that’s really driving the Obama campaign that might not necessarily identify themselves as Democrats, but just want change,” he said.

Music senior Tommy Sklut said he is one of those people.

“I think Barack Obama really has a lot of great ideas for change,” he said. “I’m hoping that it changes in favor of Barack Obama, but Michigan does have a high population of Republicans.”

With more than three months of campaigning left, a lot can still happen to sway public opinion. But if the past three months of heavy campaigning is any indication, the spotlight on the Mitten State will only brighten as the election draws nearer, Kleinerman said.

“Unless the polls start turning pretty strongly in one direction or the other, they’ll continue campaigning vigorously here,” he said. “Expect to see lots of commercials.”