Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is ahead by 7.5 percent, according to a poll at www.realclearpolitics.com, or RCP. The poll is an average of several national polls.

Electoral maps differ among sources, but McCain is behind by more than 100 electoral votes, according to most outlets.

“As a poker player would say, he needs to hit an inside straight,” Ruff said. “It’s very much uphill for him.”

Bernie Porn, president of EPIC-MRA, a Lansing-based polling company, said McCain needs to win an Obama-leaning state such as Pennsylvania to offset Colorado and New Mexico, states that were for President Bush in 2004. He also said McCain capturing Pennsylvania is unlikely.

RCP lists 10 toss-up states as Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. That number is higher than most electoral maps. Even if McCain were to grab RCP’s toss-up states, he would still fall 18 electoral votes short.

But Ruff said the national polls don’t tell the whole story. He said more recent polls in battleground states have shown a much closer race than the national picture.

One thing that might help McCain is the long lines associated with an expected record voter turnout, said Mark Kornbluh, chairman of MSU’s Department of History and a voting behavior expert. He said anything that makes voting more difficult generally helps the Republican Party.

With so many new voters introduced to the electorate by the popularity of Obama’s campaign, Kornbluh said it is uncertain whether they will show up to the polls. Issues such as long lines or bad weather could ultimately discourage participation.

Kornbluh said early voting, which was instituted this year in several states, is helping the Democratic Party, even though states such as Florida intended it to help mount a more conservative voting base. He said early voting was designed to attract the same crowd as absentee ballots, which are wealthier, older people who tend to align more with the Republican Party.

The Obama campaign, however, has been able to take advantage of early voting by better utilizing a grassroots volunteer effort, Kornbluh said.

Porn and Ruff reiterated Kornbluh’s praise of Obama’s “ground game” and said it will have a significant impact on voter turnout.

“We don’t know the extent to which the Republican ground game can get people out,” Porn said. “There is polling out there that McCain voters are a third to half as enthusiastic about going to the polls than the Obama people.”