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Bernero, Snyder to face off in November

August 4, 2010

Speaker of the Mich. House of Representatives Andy Dillon, D-Redford, lost the Democrat Party nomination in the gubernatorial race last night at the Westin Book Cadillac Detroit hotel. He gave his concession speech in front of a crowd of about 200 supporters with his family. Dillon said the loss was due in part to $2 million in negative campaign ads against Dillon.

It was an uphill battle, but with the right message and a few well-timed advertisements, early underdogs Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder gained the Democratic and Republican nominations for governor, respectively, in Tuesday’s primary election.

During his victory speech in Detroit on Tuesday, Bernero pledged to continue to fight for the working citizens of Michigan and refused to tone down his feisty attitude, which earned him the title of America’s “Angriest Mayor” when he publicly defended Michigan’s automakers during its 2009 crisis.

“Even though we were outspent, the people fought for the people’s agenda and they achieved victory,” Bernero said. “Despite all the clutter of six other gubernatorial candidates running hard, voters heard our message loud and clear.”

After receiving word of his opponents’ concessions, Snyder spoke of his dream for a reinvented Michigan to an excited crowd at his party in Ypsilanti.

“It is time to start looking to the future, out the windshield, and stop looking through the rear view mirror,” Snyder said. “It’s the era of innovation, it’s Michigan 3.0. And what is that era? It’s bringing the entrepreneurial spirit back, that innovation, that spirit of innovation that’s in each one of us.”

With all said and done, analysts predict the race to be Michigan’s next governor could change hands numerous times as the candidates continue their campaigns.

One angry mayor

After announcing his candidacy in early February, Bernero faced what seemed like an impossible combination: low name recognition and scant funds to promote his message. He faced another Democratic gubernatorial hopeful, Michigan House Speaker Andy Dillon, D-Redford. The latter candidate, according to a March poll from Lansing-based polling firm EPIC-MRA, began the two-man race with name recognition rates 19 percent higher and support numbers 7 percent higher than Bernero’s.

Despite low initial support from Michiganders, endorsements from interest groups began to trickle in. Bernero gained support from unions, environmental groups and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights groups, among others.

In the campaign’s final weeks, while polls showed Bernero trailing Dillon by 10 percent and Bernero struggled with fundraising that had barely topped $740,000, the Genesee County Democratic Committee, or GCDC, organized a $2.25 million pro-Bernero advertising campaign that attacked Dillon’s alleged record of job exportation and anti-abortion stances. The group’s spent millions were financed in part by other independent groups, and were fervently spent leading up to Tuesday’s primary, said Jack Minroe, chair of GCDC.

“We are not anti-Dillon, but we did endorse Bernero, and in that capacity, we were happy to sponsor some issues ads,” Minroe said. “Bernero effectively represented the views of a traditional Democratic value much more than the speaker.”

With support from the GCDC, a poll conducted by EPIC-MRA a week before the election showed Dillon dipping in support and Bernero launching to a sudden 8 percent lead. The trend continued, and he shattered Dillon in the elections, winning 59 percent of the vote to Dillon’s 41 percent.

“If it were not for the TV advertising that was done through Genesee County Democratic Committee, I don’t think Bernero ever would have gotten into the lead over Dillon,” said Bernie Porn, president of EPIC-MRA.

His victory demonstrates that the people of Michigan are just as fed up with politicians and the lack of results from Legislature as he is, Bernero said.

“We heard from the lobbyists and they all told us why we couldn’t win,” Bernero said in a speech at his election result watch party. “But … it’s the people that decide elections, not the pundits or the pollsters. … Come to find out, the people are every bit as angry as I am.”

One tough nerd

A former CEO of Gateway Inc., and co-founder of Ann Arbor microtechnology firm Ardesta, Snyder is a political outsider.

He never had run for public office and never worked a campaign trail. But he did have more than $6 million dollars in the bank and a need to spend. Coining a catchy slogan, “One Tough Nerd,” Snyder first appeared on TV in February during the Super Bowl. Outspending his four GOP contenders by millions of dollars, he slowly built name recognition among voters.

Despite saturating the race with money, Snyder’s poll numbers lagged behind his competitors as the months wore on. In June, he trailed frontrunner Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox by 6 percent and runner-up U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Holland, by 4 percent.

But for all the people suspicious of the “Nerd’s” nonexistent political record, there were others who welcomed him as a successful businessman with the right ideas to turn the state around. Snyder embraced his inexperience, accusing the other candidates of being “career politicians.”

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At the last minute, voters flocked to Snyder, and he jumped to a three-way statistical tie in EPIC-MRA’s Republican poll in the race’s final week. On election night, Snyder pulled away, taking 36 percent of the vote, leaving Hoekstra and Cox with 27 percent and 23 percent, respectively.

Snyder’s anti-politician message of change helped him persuade many independents and Democrats to vote for him in the primary, and this gave him the needed edge over his opponents, Porn said.

“(Snyder’s) message was ‘I’m different. I’m not a politician,’” Porn said. “And while he was conveying that message … all the other candidates were in internal primary battles amongst themselves.”

His plan to create a successful future for Michigan pulled voters from all backgrounds, Snyder said.

“When we started a year or so ago, they said we had no chance,” Snyder said. “But we rallied together as a team. We made it work by having a vision, a plan and an attitude of action to reinvent Michigan.”

Looking to November

The general election will take place Nov. 2, giving Bernero and Snyder three months to outspend, out-debate and out-campaign one another.

Across Michigan, more than 1.5 million citizens cast their vote in the gubernatorial primaries. About 1 million of those votes went to one of the GOP candidates, whereas only half that number went to a Democratic one. The outpouring of voters turning in a GOP ballot combined with Snyder’s appeal across party lines will create a difficult fight for Bernero, Porn said.

“Snyder is the strongest Republican candidate in all of our polling prior to the primary,” Porn said. “Right now, I would say Bernero has an uphill battle.”

Despite Snyder’s early advantage, Bernero’s campaign message of fighting tirelessly to create a fairer state for the working man has broad appeal, Porn said.

“‘I’m mad as hell, and I’m not going to take it anymore,’” Porn said. “I think that’s the kind of campaign Bernero is going to run. (With) that kind of populous theme, I would not underestimate his potential.”

In addition to Bernero’s allure, Snyder is new to the political game and might make a mistake that would allow Bernero to pull to the lead, said Bill Ballenger, editor and publisher of newsletter Inside Michigan Politics.

“Nobody knows what kind of a candidate Snyder’s going to be,” Ballenger said. “This is the first time he has ever run in a general election against a Democrat, and he might make a mistake, a verbal gaffe or some mistake of strategy.”

Ultimately, the race for the capitol is wide open, Ballenger said.

“Three months in politics is an eternity,” Ballenger said. “Things could turn around very quickly. Right now, probably Snyder is pleased that he starts out with a lead, but you can’t take anything for granted.”

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