Projecting the CCHA playoffs

With a weekend split against Bowling Green, the MSU hockey team’s hopes of playing on home ice in the first round of the playoffs have more than likely slipped away.

The Spartans will need to win both games in a home-and-home series against No. 2 Notre Dame if they are going to have a chance to host the first round of playoff games at Munn Ice Arena.

But even if the Spartans somehow complete a weekend sweep of the conference-leading Fighting Irish, they will need serious help from other teams to secure the eighth playoff slot.

Here’s a look at the matchups this weekend.

• MSU vs. Notre Dame — home-and-home
• Michigan vs. Ferris State — home-and-home
• Ohio State vs. Miami (Ohio) — home-and-home
• Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan — both at Western
• Lake Superior vs. Northern Michigan — both at Northern

With the standings so close, it’s nearly impossible to have any certainty in the potential matchups.

If the playoffs started today, the Spartans would be heading to Nebraska-Omaha. But this isn’t even an accurate prediction because the Mavericks have already finished their league slate.

So instead of waiting around until Saturday night, I’m going to do a projection of the last weekend of the regular season.

MSU vs. Notre Dame — The Irish are simply too good to lose to the Spartans. MSU doesn’t have the depth or talent to squeak any points out of this weekend. I’m just hoping the Spartans can keep the game close on Saturday, as it’s senior night. I don’t want to see senior goaltender Jeff Lerg get massacred in his last game at Munn Ice Arena. ND 4 points.

Michigan vs. Ferris State — I don’t see the Wolverines losing either of these games. Ferris State has been on quite the skid lately, winning only once in its last seven games. I’m expecting U-M to come out strong and end the regular season with a bang. U-M 4 points.

Ohio State vs. Miami (Ohio) — This is a really tough one to predict. Miami has been hit-or-miss all season and Ohio State has been in quite the offensive drought of late. We’ll say home ice will be the deciding factor of the weekend and both teams will escape with two points. Two points each.

Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan — After watching Bowling Green in two games this weekend I’m going to predict another split — even though both games are at Western. Bowling Green’s top line can skate with anybody and if goaltender Jimmy Spratt doesn’t get mentally rattled, I think the Falcons could be a team that might surprise people in the playoffs. Two points each.

Lake Superior vs. Northern Michigan — After snagging three points against Miami (Ohio) this weekend, Northern’s confidence is way up. But the previous two meetings between Lake Superior and Northern have been extremely close and both have had to be resolved in shoot-outs. I think Lake Superior steals a close game at Northern. Two points each.

Here is what the point breakdown will be if all of these projections are correct.

• Notre Dame 48
• Michigan 40
• Miami (Ohio) 40
• Alaska 34
• Ohio State 33
• Northern Michigan 28
• Nebraska-Omaha 26
• Ferris State 25
• Western Michigan 24
• Lake Superior 23
• MSU 21
• Bowling Green 19

Then these would be the first round matchups (top four teams receive a bye):

• Ohio State vs. Bowling Green
• Northern Michigan vs. MSU
• Nebraska-Omaha vs. Lake Superior
• Ferris State vs. Western Michigan

The Spartans have proven they can lose to anybody, but lately they have shown they can sneak out a few victories as well.

If I were a head coach, I would not want to face a team like MSU in the first round of the playoffs.

There’s one thing the Spartans have, and it’s an amazing goaltender. And goaltenders have the ability to steal playoff games.

It doesn’t matter who MSU is matched up against, Lerg will always give his team a chance to win.

And I’m predicting the Spartans to sneak through the first round of the playoffs — regardless of who they play.